Process Portfolios is a private money manager dedicated to serving individual investors, families, endowments and their advisors using systematic, research heavy investment portfolios designed to help protect client assets during periods of rising risk and grow them during times of opportunity. Our Portfolios are 100% transparent, highly liquid, low cost, and structured with diversified ETFs.

We utilize a pre-defined decision making platform that removes difficult to manage emotions from the investment process, yielding smarter investment decisions that more effectively manage long term risk. We help our clients and the clients of our advisor partners invest with the confidence that comes from smarter investments.

Our proprietary Recession Probability Indicator plays an important role in defining our response to rising, or falling, investment risk.

To learn more about our portfolios, click below or reach out via our contact page.

Process Portfolios are available to clients, families and select advisors through Separately Managed Accounts at independent third party custodians such as Interactive Brokers.

 

 

RECENT POSTS

Markets in Minutes June 30, 2017

Markets in Minutes June 30, 2017 S&P 500   10 Year Treasury   Gold   World Ex-US   US Dollar   Commodities Markets in Minutes is intended to give our client partners and subscribers a quick and easy understanding of current market conditions.  This update covers April 15 – June 30, 2017. Investor Learning: “Holding cash is uncomfortable, but not as uncomfortable […] Read more

Valuations, Market Expectations & Interest Rates June 10, 2017

  Valuations, Market Expectations & Interest Rates . — June 10, 2017 Before I begin, I thought I’d include a longish quote from The Oracle, to lend perspective – “Let’s start by defining ‘investing.’ The definition is simple but often forgotten: Investing is laying out money now to get more money back in the future – more […] Read more

How to Get More Income (and More Safety) from the Markets May 14, 2017

  How to Get More Income (and More Safety) from the Markets. — May 14, 2017 Investors take advantage of 3 major ways to generate income from the market; dividends from bonds or stocks, pure stock dividend strategies, or preferred stock plays where the yield is higher than a normal stock dividend strategy but maintains […] Read more

Markets in Minutes April 30, 2017

    Markets in Minutes April 30, 2017 S&P 500   10 Year Treasury   Gold   World Ex-US   US Dollar   Commodities Markets in Minutes is intended to give our client partners and subscribers a quick and easy understanding of current market conditions. This update covers April 17 – April 28, 2017. Investor Learning: “We would rather underperform […] Read more

2 Things To Do Today To Retire Rich (Or At Least Worry Free) April 23, 2017

  2 Things To Do Today To Retire Rich (Or At Least Worry Free) April 23, 2017 Every success in life begins with understanding what it takes to realize that success and then working towards that goal over time.  Retirement is no different.  The younger you are when you develop this understanding, the more likely […] Read more

Markets in Minutes April 15, 2017

Markets in Minutes April 15, 2017 S&P 500 10 Year Treasury Gold World Ex-US US Dollar Commodities Markets in Minutes is intended to give our client partners and subscribers a quick and easy understanding of current market conditions. This update covers March 20 – April 14, 2017. Investor Learning: “Good long-term performance results from beating […] Read more

Here’s How to Get Better Investment Returns

  Here’s How to Get Better Investment Returns  April 02, 2017 “Greedy, short-term orientated investors may lose sight of a sound mathematical reason for avoiding loss; the effects of compounding on even moderate returns over years are compelling, if not downright mind boggling.” Seth Klarman (17% annualized returns over more than 30 years) Today I […] Read more

Markets in Minutes

  Markets in Minutes is intended to give our client partners and subscribers a quick and easy understanding of current market conditions.  This update covers March 1 – 17, 2017.  In this update:  S&P 500, Bonds, Gold, World Stock Market, US Dollar, Commodities, the Economy, Recession Probability Indicator, & S&P 500 chart.  Investor Learning:  “Your […] Read more

Markets in Minutes

  Markets in Minutes Originally published on DakHartsock.com February 2017 Markets in Minutes is intended to give our client partners and subscribers a quick and easy understanding of current market conditions. Investor Learning: “Successful Investing takes time, discipline and patience. No matter how great the talent or effort, some things just take time: You can’t […] Read more

Markets in Minutes

  Markets in Minutes Originally published on DakHartsock.com February 2017 Markets in Minutes are short video updates that survey the 6 major asset classes US investors typically invest in. Each update features 3 asset classes to help investors understand what is happening in each market.     In this update: S&P 500       […] Read more

Become a Stock Market Landlord

Q1 2016 Year-to-Date and Market Outlook Update Originally published on DakHartsock.com January 29, 2017 Stocks are for buying, not renting. Or are they? The fact is that stocks can be used for consistent income while reducing the volatility (or risk) of holding stocks. This is done by selling the rights to a stock for a […] Read more

Markets in Minutes

  Markets in Minutes Originally published on DakHartsock.com January 2017 This week I take a look at the current set up in gold, world stocks ex-US, and the US Dollar. You may use the player controls to fast forward, stop, or review whichever sections of the update are most relevant to you. The numbers below […] Read more

Process Portfolios 2016 Performance Summary

  Process Portfolios 2016 Performance Summary Originally published on DakHartsock.com January 2017 It was a pretty good year for ACI portfolios with Market Income and Durable Opportunities providing particularly strong risk adjusted returns. The video is front loaded with the key information first and then a brief discussion of how each portfolio did over the […] Read more

Is the Market Over-Inflated?

  Is the Market Over-Inflated? October 2, 2016 Recently, the financial media has focused on a number of pundits that claim the market is grossly overvalued, and that the Fed’s low rate policy has forced stocks into a bubble. But are they? An important part of wealth management is to understand the fundamental drivers of […] Read more

1st Half 2016 Summary and 2nd Half Outlook

ACI Process Portfolios: 1st Half 2016 Performance & 2nd Half Outlook Originally published on DakHartsock.com July 2016 The video below has the most important information in the first minutes including performance details. The video player has controls to allow you to fast forward, pause or repeat whatever section of the video is most relevant to […] Read more

Q1 2016 Quarterly Update and Market Outlook

  Q1 2016 Year-to-Date and Market Outlook Update Originally published on DakHartsock.com May 2016 The video below reviews performance for all 6 Process Portfolios results year-to-date through April 15, 2016 and also includes an updated Market Outlook near the end. 2016 began with the worst January in at least a generation and a return to […] Read more

Stock Market Outlook Q1 2016: Impending Bear Market or Just a Correction?

  Stock Market Outlook Q1 2016: Impending Bear Market or Just Correction? Originally published on DakHartsock.com January 2016 In this update, I ask (and answer) the question of whether we are on heading into a damaging Bear Market or if it’s more likely what we are seeing is just a sharp correction. The video is […] Read more

Recession Odds Dip – Consumers Spending More

  Recession Odds Dip – Consumer Spending Still Rising 9/7/2016 Before we get going, I was recently asked what the point is of understanding whether or not we are entering a recession. This person had been told by their broker that to “ride the rallies you have to ride out the valleys.” Catchy, right? The […] Read more

What’s Up With The Economy? Recession Probability and Business Conditions Update

  There has been a lot of economic doom and gloom talk over the last couple months, with media “expert” after media “expert” saying the US economy is about to fall into a recession. It comes with the predictable warnings about a bad bear market. The vast majority of these talking heads are just voicing […] Read more

2016 Stock Market: What You Need to Know

  4 Things You Need to Know About Investing in 2016 We’ve seen a lot of headlines recently, most of them pretty alarming to the average person. Hand in hand with those headlines we’ve seen markets make some of the most substantial short term moves in recent history. In the first 5 market days of […] Read more

So, We May Have a Bump Coming in the Market

  So, We May Have a Bump Coming in the Market For those that don’t know, the vast majority of analysts and institutional investment managers believe that the Federal Reserve will raise rates for the first time since the Great Recession December 16th. They also see this as an overall positive for the markets. So […] Read more

Why Recessions Kill Investment Portfolios (and Poorly Protected Retirements)

  Why Recessions Kill Investment Portfolios (and Poorly Protected Retirements) We’ve all heard “You’ve got to be in it for the long term,” or “You can’t catch the rallies unless you are in the market” from brokers or financial salespeople (they prefer “financial advisor”) and as a result more than one investor has had night […] Read more

Market Beating Portfolios – Performance Update October 2015

  Market Beating Portfolios – Performance Update November 2015 The video below reviews performance for all 6 Process Portfolios for the month of October as well as year-to-date results. For reference, I’ve include a table of 2015 year-to-date performance for the major indices & asset classes above the video player. It hasn’t been an easy […] Read more

Is the S&P 500 Over Valued? Yes. What Should You Do? Market Valuation Update November 2015

  Is the S&P 500 Over Valued? Yes. What Should You Do? Market Valuation Update November 2015 I’ve broken this update into 2 parts. The first will just give the big picture summary for my executive type clients & subscribers and the second, below the illustrations, is a discussion of the factors involved for those […] Read more

Will the Economy Sink or Lift the Stock Market? RPI & Business Conditions Update

  Will the Economy Sink or Support the Stock Market? RPI & Business Conditions Update October 2015 There has been great concern recently among talking heads whether or not the Fed will raise rates and what the impact on the economy will be if they do. The fact is the US economy is trudging along […] Read more

Stock Market Ups & Downs. What’s Next? Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook September 24, 2015 We’ve seen a lot of volatility (up and down, mostly down) in the market recently and headlines have some investors worried. Are there good reasons to be concerned? Maybe, but what’s really happening under the stock market’s hood? Video below. Please share using the buttons below the player. Warm […] Read more

Is the Fed in Danger of Starting an Accidental Recession? RPI & Business Conditions Update

  Is the Fed in Danger of Starting an Accidental Recession? RPI & Business Conditions Update September 2015 There is a lot of debate about the lack of clarity in the Fed’s communication to market participants over the last several months, and markets generally do not like uncertainty. Some recent headlines are talking about an […] Read more

Is the Market Crashing? Stock Market Outlook August 2015

  Stock Market Outlook August 23, 2015 See the below 7 minute video for my current market outlook. I thought I’d release this a couple days early given the big selloff we saw in the market last week. Summary: Good news–No evidence of an incipient Bear Market as yet. Please share using the buttons below. […] Read more

Economy Showing Signs of Wear? Recession Probability Update April 2015

RPI Score Moves to 27 from 12 One of the major components of the RPI has recorded it’s 3rd negative month in a row. This has occurred three times in the last 15 years. Two of those occasions marked the beginning of market declines that ultimately became crashes. The move above 20 creates a “Reduce […] Read more

RPI Update March 2015

  US Economy Plugging Along–Recession Probability Indicator Update March 2015 The Recession Probability Indicator (“RPI”) is a tool I developed for measuring the strength of the American economy. When the RPI signals increasing odds of recession, the investment environment for stocks usually becomes unfavorable, which basically means stocks go down more than up during such […] Read more

 

© Copyright 2015
ACI Wealth Advisors by aciwealth

Investment Management

For ACI, investment management begins with understanding and actively managing risk for our clients and partners.  We do this through smarter investments built on low cost, highly liquid and diversified investments rather than expensive financial products.

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RETIREMENT INCOME PLANNING

Understanding the needs of investors seeking stable results for portfolios greater than $500,000 is a core strength of ACI.  One of the most important things we do is help your investments to create stable income while generating sufficient growth to meet your future demands and the needs of those you care for. 

ACI uses customized planning and software to create retirement income plans to meet the specific needs of each of clients while providing confidence, flexibility, and cost efficiency.

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FINANCIAL PLANNING

Success in any endeavor comes from hard work, vision, and planning. We can help you create a more confident future by working with you, your CPA, your tax and estate counsel to make sure that when the tomorrow becomes today, you are where you want to be.

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Market Income

This portfolio invests in a basket of highly liquid Index or Sector securities and sells off atypical returns in exchange for a premium on a rolling basis. That’s a fancy way of saying we take the bird in hand and let someone else have the two in the bush.  We buy sectors that are undervalued relative to the rest of the market or vs. their historical value ranges which reduces downside risk vs. the broad market.  Typically out-performs in bear markets, neutral markets and mild bull markets, and under-performs strong bull markets.

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Core Equity

Invests in diversified components of the financial markets and broad economy by targeting sectors which demonstrate the greatest potential for a consistent range of multi-year returns, while offering a risk adjusted investment profile equal to or lower than the broad markets.  Our research tells us which sectors demonstrate the greatest potential for consistent multi-year returns while offering greater risk efficiency than the broad markets.  We invest on an “Outcome Oriented” basis – meaning we have a good idea what the returns over time will be at a given purchase price.

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Durable Opportunities

This portfolio invests in companies possessing a Durable Competitive Advantage.  Such companies are likely to be around for decades, easing the concern of principal return.  DCA companies often suffer less in bear markets and usually lead recoveries.  These companies allow ACI to build portfolios with minimum expected returns that can be in the mid-single digit range over any 3-5 year period which can provide long term stability partnered with long term growth in equity.

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Full Cycle

This portfolio is derived from the ground breaking work in ‘risk parity’ by Ray Dalio, arguably one of the top 10 money managers in history and founder of Bridgewater Associates.  The Full Cycle portfolio is built on the allocation models Ray designed to provide the highest potential risk adjusted returns possible through all phases of the economic cycle.  Bridgewater’s “All Weather” fund was designed for pension funds and other large institutional investors that needed to earn stable returns with stable risk, and has been closed to new investors for years.  At the time the fund closed, the All Weather Portfolio had a minimum required investment of $100 million.

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Equity Builder

This is a risk management overlay which helps build and protect accounts by collecting small premiums against held positions on an opportunistic basis during correcting markets through synthetic “short” positions.  EQB seeks to collect an extra 2% – 5% per year against the cost of underlying investments.  While primarily targeted at increasing account equity, EQB gives an extra layer of protection to capital during periods of higher volatility.

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Fixed Income

Diversified, broad exposure to fixed income ETFs and best of breed no load funds including core fixed income components such as Government, Corporate or MBS, municipals, and unconstrained “Go Anywhere” funds.

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Investment Team

 

Dak Hartsock; Investment manager with over 15 years of experience with securities & securities options. Dak has worked full time in the financial markets since 2007. He has more than a decade of operating experience as a business owner & developer. He is a graduate of the University of Virginia.

Robert Hartsock; MBA. Bob has over 30 years of senior management experience in diverse markets, products and businesses. He brings an exceptional record that includes management roles in two Fortune 500 companies and leadership of 7,500+ employees. Bob’s career features a specialization in identifying and fixing management and operational problems for multiple companies including leading over a dozen acquisitions, private placements and a public offering. He is uniquely positioned to provide ACI with highly relevant C-Level management perspective. Bob provides operational & macro perspective on investments ACI undertakes for client portfolios. Bob holds degrees from University of Illinois and University of Washington.

Process Portfolios is a dba of ACI Wealth Advisors, LLC.

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